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THE RECORD

Prediction accuracy: our public pick record

Every pick is saved before the game starts, with the price available at that moment, then graded against the final score. Wins and losses both stay. You can check every row yourself.

  • Logged before the startPicks can’t be added or changed once a game begins.
  • Real sportsbook pricesGraded at the odds we saw, 1 unit per pick.
  • Nothing deletedLosses stay. Retired models stay, frozen.
Download every pickUpdated Nov 1, 11:14 PM ET
FROM OCTOBER 29, 2026

Current record: SlipHound models

A pick is made only when a sportsbook pays more than our model’s chance says it should, and only in markets where that model passed its quality check. Player props use our tested model + line blend (NBA threes, rebounds, assists and steals) or line shopping.

Units+1.4u1 unit risked per pick
Return per pick+0.4%176 waiting on results
Record (W-L-P)216-184-854.0% of decided picks won
Picks graded408Oct 29 – Nov 1

408 graded picks so far. A small sample swings a lot either way. Judge this record over several hundred picks, not a few days. Units and return matter more than win rate.

Running total, pick by pick408 picks · 1 unit risked each · Oct 29 – Nov 1+1.4u
0+17.4u−2.7uPick 1Pick 408

Every graded pick in start-time order, wins and losses. Peak +17.4u, lowest −2.7u.

By pick type

MethodPicksRecordWin rateUnitsReturn
Game picks247127-112-853.1%+1.8u+0.7%
Player props16189-7255.3%−0.3u−0.2%

By sport

SportPicksRecordWin rateUnitsReturn
NBA11868-5057.6%+8.5u+7.2%
NHL8640-45-147.1%−15.0u−17.4%
Premier League5228-20-458.3%+3.3u+6.4%
College Football4727-2057.4%+4.9u+10.5%
Ligue 12812-1642.9%−6.0u−21.4%
Bundesliga199-8-252.9%+1.2u+6.2%
La Liga179-7-156.3%+1.7u+9.8%
Serie A148-657.1%+1.5u+10.6%
Tennis127-558.3%+1.1u+9.3%
NFL115-645.5%−1.7u−15.1%
WNBA32-166.7%+0.8u+25.3%
UFC / MMA11-0100.0%+1.1u+110.0%

Two game picks recorded on Oct 29 by a retired method that copied the sportsbooks’ consensus line are not counted here, because they weren’t model picks. They are still in the full dataset download.

By price (including picks outside -200 to +200)

Odds rangePicksRecordWin rateUnitsReturn
-399 to -2013324-972.7%+0.8u+2.5%
-200 to +200 (counted above)408216-184-854.0%+1.4u+0.4%

The headline record counts picks priced -200 to +200. Heavy favorites win often but rarely pay enough, and long shots rarely hit, so they’re shown in the price table and kept in the dataset.

Latest graded picks

DateSportGamePickOddsResultUnits
Nov 1NBABrooklyn Nets at Indiana PacersIndiana Pacers moneyline-168loss−1.0u
Nov 1NFLKansas City Chiefs at Denver BroncosUnder 40.5 points-105loss−1.0u
Nov 1NFLKansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos1st half · Kansas City Chiefs Under 9.5 points+120loss−1.0u
Nov 1NFLKansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos1st half · Denver Broncos +1.5 points-135loss−1.0u
Nov 1NFLLos Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams1st half · Los Angeles Chargers Under 9.5 points-108win+0.9u
Nov 1NHLUtah Mammoth at Philadelphia FlyersPhiladelphia Flyers +1.5 goals-170win+0.6u
Nov 1LALIGAReal Sociedad at Athletic Club90 min · Over 2.5 goals-130win+0.8u
Nov 1LALIGAReal Sociedad at Athletic Club90 min · Real Sociedad +0.5 goals-105loss−1.0u
Nov 1SERIEANapoli at Juventus90 min · Juventus -0.25 goals+100win+1.0u
Nov 1LIGUE1Toulouse at Marseille90 min · Toulouse +0.5 goals-104loss−1.0u
Nov 1SERIEANapoli at Juventus90 min · Under 2.5 goals-115win+0.9u
Nov 1LIGUE1Toulouse at Marseille1st half · Toulouse Under 0.5 goals-138win+0.7u
Nov 1LIGUE1Toulouse at Marseille1st half · Under 1.5 goals-166loss−1.0u
Nov 1LIGUE1Toulouse at Marseille90 min · Marseille to win · 1X2+100win+1.0u
Nov 1LIGUE1Toulouse at Marseille90 min · Under 3 goals+108win+1.1u

Showing the latest 15. Every graded pick is in the dataset.

EVERY GAME, EVERY SPORT

Did our model pick the winner?

Our predicted winner for every game we cover is saved before it starts and graded after, not just games with a pick. Picking winners isn’t the same as winning bets, because favorites win most games. The fair test is the market’s favorite on the same games. On 2025 games the market favorite was right slightly more often in most sports; closing that gap is what our model work is for.

SportLive gamesOur pick wonMarket favorite wonWaiting2025: our pick2025: market favorite
NFL1275.0%72.7%264.7% (269)66.2%
College Football3076.7%92.0%071.4% (748)74.3%
NBA2259.1%—1768.0% (1,225)69.2%
College Basketball10.0%0.0%15070.8% (5,527)72.5%
NHL2857.1%—558.6% (1,267)61.0%
MLB0——054.8% (2,196)55.2%
UFC / MMA7100.0%80.0%056.9% (562)—
Tennis9362.4%50.0%2561.2% (9,189)—
Premier League955.6%55.6%154.3% (370)56.8%
La Liga977.8%75.0%154.4% (355)55.5%
Bundesliga944.4%37.5%050.0% (298)51.0%
Serie A1080.0%87.5%251.3% (359)52.6%
Ligue 1875.0%100.0%153.9% (306)53.6%
Champions League0——059.6% (183)59.0%
Europa League0——054.4% (160)—
Conference League0——057.1% (70)—

Live tracking started October 29, 2026. 2025 columns use the model in use then, on games with posted odds; tennis, MMA and the Europa and Conference Leagues show our model only. Soccer counts home win, draw or away win, so lower rates are normal. College football uses model v2; tennis combines both tours; the NBA 2025 test is our earlier winner model. Walkovers, retirements, fight draws and moved games aren’t counted.

THE BENCHMARK

Our models vs. the market

The betting market is the toughest benchmark there is. For each pick we record the sportsbooks’ chance (with their cut removed) when the pick was made and again in the last hour before the start. If our model sees something the market doesn’t, the market should move toward our number, and the price we took should beat the closing price.

PicksSport · marketWith closeModelMarket at pickMarket at closeMoved toward modelClosing valueLine moved our wayW-L
Value picksNBA · Moneyline1368.2%58.5%59.4%53.8% (13)−0.3%—5-8
Value picksPremier League · Spread1058.6%49.2%52.7%66.7% (9)+3.6%66.7% (6)8-9
Value picksCollege Football · Total (over/under)1059.6%50.2%51.6%83.3% (6)−1.4%88.9% (9)7-3
Value picksBundesliga · Total (over/under)955.6%49.1%48.3%28.6% (7)−2.1%50.0% (4)5-4
Value picksPremier League · Total (over/under)957.3%49.9%48.9%37.5% (8)−0.9%100.0% (2)9-4
Value picksBundesliga · Spread858.3%49.0%48.7%50.0% (8)−2.0%100.0% (2)4-4
Value picksCollege Football · Spread861.9%49.5%50.7%66.7% (3)−2.3%16.7% (6)8-6
Value picksNBA · Spread758.5%49.8%50.0%50.0% (4)−4.3%60.0% (5)9-4
Value picksNBA · Total (over/under)756.6%50.0%50.6%50.0% (2)−3.8%66.7% (6)6-3
Value picksSerie A · Spread556.7%50.3%50.5%40.0% (5)−2.8%33.3% (3)3-4
Value picksTennis · Moneyline561.5%53.1%55.4%80.0% (5)−2.0%—9-6
Value picksLa Liga · Spread458.3%49.2%47.4%50.0% (4)−4.7%0.0% (2)4-5
Value picksLa Liga · Total (over/under)455.8%48.7%48.2%50.0% (4)−3.4%0.0% (2)5-2
Value picksCollege Football · Moneyline469.3%63.5%66.1%50.0% (4)+0.8%—3-1
Value picksNHL · Spread463.1%56.8%57.0%25.0% (4)−2.9%—2-4
Value picksLigue 1 · Spread360.6%52.8%53.3%50.0% (2)−2.7%50.0% (2)3-7
Value picksLigue 1 · Total (over/under)356.8%50.4%54.1%50.0% (2)+2.4%50.0% (2)4-6
Value picksNFL · Moneyline364.2%57.0%62.7%66.7% (3)−0.5%—1-1
Value picksSerie A · Total (over/under)356.3%49.7%46.7%0.0% (2)−4.5%50.0% (2)2-2
Value picksNFL · Total (over/under)155.7%49.9%———0.0% (1)0-1
Value picksSerie A · Moneyline156.9%45.7%46.4%100.0% (1)+1.2%—1-0
LeansCollege Football · Total (over/under)2460.3%50.0%50.7%60.0% (10)−2.2%76.2% (21)21-17
LeansNBA · Spread2360.5%50.2%50.0%58.3% (12)−2.9%63.2% (19)9-20
LeansNBA · Total (over/under)2259.2%50.1%50.0%57.1% (7)−2.5%50.0% (18)15-15
LeansCollege Football · Spread2260.3%50.1%50.0%53.3% (15)−2.4%16.7% (12)19-15
LeansNFL · Total (over/under)1258.8%50.6%49.9%33.3% (6)−3.7%55.6% (9)10-11
LeansNFL · Spread1058.6%49.8%50.2%75.0% (8)−0.5%33.3% (6)9-8
LeansNHL · Total (over/under)555.5%51.3%51.4%40.0% (5)−2.3%100.0% (1)2-7
KEPT SEPARATE

Model leans

Spreads, totals, team totals and first-half bets where our model leans but hasn’t yet beaten the betting line in testing. They appear on the dashboard as “Model leans”, never as value picks, and are graded here on their own so they never mix with the record above. Counted at -200 to +200.

Units+0.5u1 unit risked per lean
Return per lean+0.2%233 waiting on results
Record (W-L-P)155-143-352.0% of decided leans won
Leans graded301Priced -200 to +200

By market

MarketPicksRecordWin rateUnitsReturn
Team total12070-5058.3%+14.5u+12.1%
Total (over/under)9848-49-149.5%−4.1u−4.2%
Spread8337-44-245.7%−9.9u−12.0%

By sport

SportPicksRecordWin rateUnitsReturn
College Football11865-51-256.0%+8.1u+6.8%
NBA9145-4649.5%−4.5u−5.0%
NFL7640-35-153.3%+3.8u+5.0%
NHL165-1131.3%−6.9u−43.2%
RETIRED · OCT 14 – OCT 28, 2026

SlipHound v1 models

1,776 picks · 945-805-26 · +23.2u · +1.3% per pick. Kept exactly as graded and frozen once their last games finished.

Show full record
Units+23.2u1 unit risked per pick
Return per pick+1.3%16 waiting on results
Record (W-L-P)945-805-2654.0% of decided picks won
Picks graded1,776Oct 14 – Nov 1
Running total, pick by pick1,776 picks · 1 unit risked each · Oct 14 – Nov 1+23.2u
0+45.8u−31.1uPick 1Pick 1,776

Every graded pick in start-time order, wins and losses. Peak +45.8u, lowest −31.1u.

Game picks vs. player props

TypePicksRecordWin rateUnitsReturn
Game picks971489-456-2651.7%−5.8u−0.6%
Player props805456-34956.6%+29.0u+3.6%

By sport

SportPicksRecordWin rateUnitsReturn
NFL946524-421-155.4%+28.6u+3.0%
College Football316164-147-552.7%+3.4u+1.1%
NBA219107-111-149.1%−12.8u−5.8%
Serie A6433-28-354.1%+0.2u+0.3%
Premier League6234-21-761.8%+11.2u+18.0%
MLB4928-2157.1%−0.2u−0.4%
NHL3619-1752.8%−0.9u−2.4%
Champions League3114-16-146.7%−3.3u−10.7%
La Liga167-5-458.3%+1.5u+9.6%
Ligue 1103-3-450.0%+0.4u+3.7%
Bundesliga103-730.0%−3.9u−38.7%
Tennis95-455.6%+0.2u+2.7%
Europa League73-442.9%−2.0u−28.7%
UFC / MMA11-0100.0%+0.8u+80.0%

By market (at least 5 graded picks)

MarketPicksRecordWin rateUnitsReturn
Team total348175-17350.3%−12.5u−3.6%
Spread295139-139-1750.0%−7.2u−2.4%
Total (over/under)251129-113-953.3%+5.5u+2.2%
Reception Yds (prop)11565-5056.5%+6.0u+5.2%
Receptions (prop)9456-3859.6%+7.6u+8.1%
Moneyline7746-3159.7%+8.4u+10.9%
Solo Tackles (prop)5033-1766.0%+12.0u+24.1%
Tackles Assists (prop)4826-2254.2%−0.7u−1.5%
Rush Yds (prop)4824-2450.0%−2.2u−4.6%
Assists (prop)4730-1763.8%+5.0u+10.7%
Rush Attempts (prop)4423-2152.3%−1.4u−3.3%
Rush Reception Yds (prop)2914-1548.3%−1.9u−6.7%
Pass Attempts (prop)2711-1640.7%−6.4u−23.8%
Pass Yds (prop)2513-1252.0%−1.6u−6.2%
Pass Completions (prop)238-1534.8%−8.1u−35.3%
Hits (prop)2112-957.1%+0.3u+1.6%
Pass Rush Yds (prop)198-1142.1%−3.9u−20.5%
Hits Runs Rbis (prop)1912-763.2%+1.4u+7.2%
Sacks (prop)1712-570.6%+4.8u+28.5%
Rush Longest (prop)1712-570.6%+5.8u+34.0%
Reception Longest (prop)1711-664.7%+2.8u+16.2%
Kicking Points (prop)1612-475.0%+6.6u+41.4%
Field Goals (prop)1611-568.8%+4.2u+26.5%
Pass Tds (prop)159-660.0%−0.3u−1.9%
Pats (prop)1310-376.9%+3.8u+28.9%
Pass Interceptions (prop)137-653.8%−0.2u−1.7%
Points (prop)127-558.3%+0.6u+5.3%
Shots On Goal (prop)94-544.4%−1.6u−17.2%
Pass Rush Reception Yds (prop)84-450.0%−0.5u−5.9%
Tds (prop)75-271.4%+1.3u+18.7%

By price (including picks outside -200 to +200)

Odds rangePicksRecordWin rateUnitsReturn
-400 or shorter86-275.0%−0.5u−6.3%
-399 to -201246169-7768.7%−13.9u−5.7%
-200 to +200 (counted above)1776945-805-2654.0%+23.2u+1.3%

Latest graded picks

DateSportGamePickOddsResultUnits
Nov 1NFLKansas City Chiefs at Denver BroncosDenver Broncos moneyline+105win+1.0u
Nov 1NFLNew England Patriots at Miami DolphinsOver 43.5 points-113loss−1.0u
Nov 1NFLKansas City Chiefs at Denver BroncosDenver Broncos Over 20.5 points+102win+1.0u
Nov 1NFLKansas City Chiefs at Denver BroncosKansas City Chiefs Under 20.5 points-112loss−1.0u
Nov 1NFLNew England Patriots at Miami Dolphins1st half · Miami Dolphins +3.5 points+100win+1.0u
Nov 1NFLNew England Patriots at Miami DolphinsMiami Dolphins Over 17.5 points-110win+0.9u
Nov 1NFLNew England Patriots at Miami Dolphins1st half · Miami Dolphins Over 8.5 points-122win+0.8u
Nov 1NFLNew England Patriots at Miami Dolphins1st half · New England Patriots Under 13.5 points-120win+0.8u
Nov 1NFLNew England Patriots at Miami DolphinsNew England Patriots Under 26.5 points-112win+0.9u
Nov 1NFLLos Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles RamsLos Angeles Chargers Under 19.5 points-110win+0.9u
Nov 1NFLLos Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams1st half · Los Angeles Rams Under 13.5 points-115win+0.9u
Nov 1SERIEANapoli at Juventus90 min · Napoli +0.5 goals+104loss−1.0u
Nov 1SERIEANapoli at Juventus1st half · Napoli +0.25 goals-118half win+0.4u
Nov 1SERIEANapoli at Juventus1st half · Juventus Under 0.5 goals-102win+1.0u
Nov 1SERIEANapoli at Juventus90 min · Juventus Under 1.5 goals-118loss−1.0u
Nov 1NFLIndianapolis Colts at Jacksonville JaguarsOver 45.5 points-112win+0.9u
Nov 1NFLAtlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay BuccaneersOver 43 points-114loss−1.0u
Nov 1NFLAtlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay BuccaneersAtlanta Falcons moneyline+105loss−1.0u
Nov 1NFLTennessee Titans at Cincinnati BengalsUnder 47.5 points-110loss−1.0u
Nov 1NFLBaltimore Ravens at Buffalo BillsOver 52.5 points-110loss−1.0u
Nov 1NFLBaltimore Ravens at Buffalo BillsBuffalo Bills moneyline-178win+0.6u
Nov 1NFLLas Vegas Raiders at New York JetsOver 45.5 points-105win+1.0u
Nov 1NFLLas Vegas Raiders at New York JetsLas Vegas Raiders moneyline+106win+1.1u
Nov 1NFLMinnesota Vikings at Detroit LionsUnder 46 points-107win+0.9u
Nov 1NFLArizona Cardinals at Dallas CowboysUnder 54.5 points-104loss−1.0u
Nov 1NFLTennessee Titans at Cincinnati BengalsOver 46 points-105win+1.0u
Nov 1NFLBaltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills1st half · Buffalo Bills Under 13.5 points+112loss−1.0u
Nov 1NFLBaltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills1st half · Baltimore Ravens +2.5 points+100loss−1.0u
Nov 1NFLBaltimore Ravens at Buffalo BillsBaltimore Ravens Under 25.5 points-105win+1.0u
Nov 1NFLBaltimore Ravens at Buffalo BillsBuffalo Bills Over 28.5 points-110win+0.9u
Nov 1NFLBaltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills1st half · Baltimore Ravens Under 12.5 points-105win+1.0u
Nov 1NFLTennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals1st half · Tennessee Titans +6.5 points-109win+0.9u
Nov 1NFLTennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals1st half · Tennessee Titans Over 8.5 points-110win+0.9u
Nov 1NFLTennessee Titans at Cincinnati BengalsTennessee Titans Over 17.5 points+105win+1.0u
Nov 1NFLArizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys1st half · Dallas Cowboys Under 16.5 points-111win+0.9u
Nov 1NFLArizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys1st half · Arizona Cardinals Over 10.5 points+115loss−1.0u
Nov 1NFLArizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys1st half · Arizona Cardinals +4.5 points-110loss−1.0u
Nov 1NFLArizona Cardinals at Dallas CowboysDallas Cowboys Under 30.5 points+100win+1.0u
Nov 1NFLMinnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions1st half · Detroit Lions Under 12.5 points+100win+1.0u
Nov 1NFLMinnesota Vikings at Detroit LionsDetroit Lions Under 24.5 points-110win+0.9u

Showing the latest 40. Every graded pick is in the dataset.

METHOD

How we grade

  1. LoggedEach pick is saved before the game with the sportsbook price available at that moment.
  2. GradedAbout 4 hours after the start (12 for player props), against the official final score. 1 unit risked per pick; quarter lines count as half wins or losses; pushes return the stake.
  3. PublishedOnly our default pick style is counted, so no bet is counted twice. Every row goes into the downloadable dataset.

A small number of player props can’t be graded from the official box score (for example, when the player doesn’t appear in it, or for first-quarter and longest-play markets); those are left out rather than guessed. Past results don’t guarantee future results.

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