How to read a pick.
Every SlipHound pick answers two questions: who’s likely to win, and is the price worth it? Here’s each part, using an example.
Every number, explained.
Example values shown in green.
How often our model expects this team to win a game like this. 70% means about 70 times out of 100 — so it still loses about 30.
The side our model favors. A favorite isn’t automatically a good bet — that depends on the price.
The sportsbook’s price. −180 means you risk $180 to win $100; +150 means you risk $100 to win $150.
The chance the odds suggest. “No-vig” removes the sportsbook’s built-in cut so it can be compared fairly with our chance.
Expected return per dollar if our chance is right. +8.9% means about $8.90 profit per $100 over many similar bets. Negative EV means the price is too short.
Our expected final score. Spread and total picks come from comparing this with the sportsbook’s lines.
Context: recent results, past meetings, and how each team has done against the spread and total.
Putting it together
Say our model gives a team a 55% chance and the sportsbook offers +110. The odds imply about 47.6%, so we think the team wins more often than the price assumes. Expected value: 0.55 × 1.10 − 0.45 = +15.5%. That’s a value bet — even though the team is close to a coin flip.
Now flip it: a 77% favorite at −400 implies 80%. The team is likely to win, but the price is too short, so the EV is negative. Picking winners and finding value aren’t the same thing — sharp bettors care about the second one.
The odds imply 80%. The team usually wins, but the price asks for more than that.
The odds imply 47.6%. A near coin flip, but it wins more often than the price assumes.