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Expected value (EV) calculator
Find out whether a bet is worth it. Enter the odds and your estimated chance of winning.
Expected value
+10.0%
Expected profit on this stake$10.00
Profit if it wins$120.00
Chance implied by the odds45.5%
Your edge4.5 pts
Fair odds for your chance+100
Kelly stake (full / quarter)8.3% / 2.1% of bankroll
EV = chance × profit − (1 − chance) × stake. It’s an average over many bets, not a promise for this one.
What is expected value?
Expected value (EV) is what a bet would earn on average if you could make it many times. Positive EV means the odds pay more than the risk deserves. Example: a 50% chance at +120 has an EV of 0.5 × 1.20 − 0.5 = +10%, or $10 per $100 over the long run.
Your estimate of the chance is what matters most. SlipHound members get the model’s chance for every bet. See how to read a pick.