NBA season forecast 2026-27

Eastern Conference

Team	Record	Projected W-L	Likely range	Top 6	Make playoffs	Reach Finals	Win title
Detroit Pistons	5-1	57.6-24.4	48–67	97%	99%	37%	19%
Boston Celtics	4-1	53.0-29.0	42–63	89%	95%	22%	10%
Philadelphia 76ers	5-1	46.7-35.3	36–57	68%	85%	7%	2%
Cleveland Cavaliers	3-2	45.3-36.7	35–56	62%	81%	7%	2%
Atlanta Hawks	3-3	45.2-36.8	35–56	62%	81%	6%	2%
Toronto Raptors	3-2	45.0-37.0	34–56	61%	80%	7%	2%
New York Knicks	2-4	45.0-37.0	34–55	61%	81%	8%	3%
Miami Heat	2-4	39.7-42.3	29–50	35%	60%	3%	1%
Charlotte Hornets	3-3	38.3-43.7	28–49	29%	53%	2%	<1%
Orlando Magic	2-3	38.2-43.8	27–49	28%	51%	2%	<1%
Washington Wizards	3-3	27.6-54.4	18–38	4%	11%	<1%	—
Chicago Bulls	1-5	25.5-56.5	16–35	2%	7%	<1%	—
Milwaukee Bucks	1-4	24.8-57.2	15–35	2%	7%	<1%	—
Indiana Pacers	2-4	24.7-57.3	16–34	1%	6%	<1%	—
Brooklyn Nets	0-5	21.2-60.8	12–31	1%	3%	<1%	—

Western Conference

Team	Record	Projected W-L	Likely range	Top 6	Make playoffs	Reach Finals	Win title
Oklahoma City Thunder	4-1	56.9-25.1	47–66	91%	97%	26%	17%
Houston Rockets	5-1	55.3-26.7	45–65	88%	95%	19%	12%
Minnesota Timberwolves	4-2	54.3-27.7	45–64	86%	95%	19%	12%
San Antonio Spurs	3-2	53.3-28.7	43–63	82%	92%	17%	11%
Los Angeles Lakers	4-2	46.7-35.3	36–57	54%	74%	5%	3%
Denver Nuggets	3-2	45.3-36.7	35–56	46%	68%	4%	2%
Golden State Warriors	3-3	43.5-38.5	33–54	37%	60%	2%	1%
Portland Trail Blazers	3-1	42.1-39.9	31–53	32%	54%	2%	1%
Memphis Grizzlies	5-0	42.1-39.9	31–53	31%	52%	2%	1%
Dallas Mavericks	4-2	39.1-42.9	29–49	19%	38%	1%	<1%
Phoenix Suns	1-3	38.5-43.5	27–50	19%	37%	1%	1%
LA Clippers	1-4	36.0-46.0	25–47	12%	28%	1%	<1%
New Orleans Pelicans	1-4	28.3-53.7	18–39	2%	7%	<1%	<1%
Utah Jazz	1-4	23.3-58.7	14–33	<1%	2%	—	—
Sacramento Kings	0-5	17.6-64.4	9–27	<1%	<1%	—	—

How the forecast works

We rate every team from this season’s scoring margins (with last season counted lightly early on), adjust for home advantage, and turn each remaining game into a win chance. Then we play out the rest of the schedule 10,000 times — including how sure we are about each team’s rating — and count how often each outcome happens. Seeds 7–10 go through a simulated play-in; playoff series are best-of-seven with home court to the better record. Tiebreakers are simplified.

We tested this exact method on the 2025-26 season before publishing it, with settings chosen only from earlier seasons. Average miss in final wins per team, compared with two simple guesses:

Lower is better. Green marks where SlipHound was most accurate. Forecasts are estimates, not guarantees.