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Get startedPremier League season forecast 2026-27
Where every team is headed: the current record, the pace it’s on over a 38-game season, a projection from scoring margin (which predicts future results better than record alone), and how many games our model expects each team to win in the next seven days.
Full projections — projected records and title odds from 10,000 simulations — start once 25% of the season has been played (about 21% so far). Before that, our tests found simple standings were just as accurate. Until then, here’s where every team stands.
2026-27 English Premier League
| Team | Record | Points | Margin / game | Points pace | Next 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 8-1 | 24 | +1.0 | 101.3 | 0.6 of 1 |
 Manchester City | 7-2 | 21 | +1.1 | 88.7 | 0.5 of 1 |
 Brighton & Hove Albion | 6-2-1 | 19 | +1.9 | 80.2 | 0.5 of 1 |
 Chelsea | 5-3-1 | 16 | +0.4 | 67.6 | 0.4 of 1 |
 Liverpool | 4-2-3 | 15 | +0.2 | 63.3 | 0.5 of 1 |
 Brentford | 3-1-5 | 14 | +0.8 | 59.1 | 0.3 of 1 |
 Newcastle United | 3-3-2 | 11 | −0.3 | 52.3 | 0.8 of 2 |
 AFC Bournemouth | 3-3-3 | 12 | +0.1 | 50.7 | 0.5 of 1 |
 Tottenham Hotspur | 3-3-3 | 12 | 0.0 | 50.7 | 0.3 of 1 |
 Aston Villa | 3-3-3 | 12 | −0.3 | 50.7 | 0.3 of 1 |
 Everton | 2-2-4 | 10 | −0.1 | 47.5 | 0.8 of 2 |
 Hull City | 2-2-5 | 11 | +0.1 | 46.4 | 0.1 of 1 |
 Leeds United | 2-2-5 | 11 | +0.1 | 46.4 | 0.4 of 1 |
 Ipswich Town | 3-4-2 | 11 | −0.4 | 46.4 | 0.2 of 1 |
 Fulham | 2-4-3 | 9 | −0.2 | 38.0 | 0.4 of 1 |
 Coventry City | 3-6 | 9 | −0.8 | 38.0 | 0.2 of 1 |
 Manchester United | 1-4-4 | 7 | −0.6 | 29.6 | 0.4 of 1 |
 Crystal Palace | 2-6-1 | 7 | −1.3 | 29.6 | 0.3 of 1 |
 Nottingham Forest | 1-5-3 | 6 | −0.7 | 25.3 | 0.2 of 1 |
 Sunderland | 1-6-2 | 5 | −1.1 | 21.1 | 0.3 of 1 |
How to read this
Win pace assumes a team keeps winning at its current rate. Margin projection uses points scored and allowed instead (the “Pythagorean” method), which is steadier early in a season. Points pace projects standings points over the full season. Next 7 days adds up our model’s win chance for each of the team’s upcoming games — for example, 1.4 of 2 means the model expects about 1.4 wins from its next two games.
Projections are estimates, not guarantees. Early in a season, with only a few games played, they swing a lot. Records and scoring from ESPN.
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