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Get startedBundesliga season forecast 2026-27
Every team’s projected final points, title, top-four and relegation odds, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Updated Oct 31, 8:30 AM ET · 21% of the season played · 242 games left.
| Team | W-D-L | Points | Projected | Likely range | Win title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bayern Munich | 5-2-0 | 17 | 82 pts | 73–90 | 89% | >99% | — |
 Borussia Dortmund | 5-2-0 | 17 | 65 pts | 53–76 | 6% | 77% | <1% |
 RB Leipzig | 4-0-3 | 12 | 59 pts | 47–70 | 2% | 53% | <1% |
 Bayer Leverkusen | 4-1-2 | 13 | 58 pts | 47–70 | 2% | 52% | <1% |
 SC Freiburg | 4-1-2 | 13 | 54 pts | 43–66 | 1% | 34% | 1% |
 SV Elversberg | 4-1-3 | 13 | 51 pts | 39–64 | <1% | 24% | 3% |
 FC Augsburg | 2-3-2 | 9 | 48 pts | 36–59 | <1% | 13% | 5% |
 Werder Bremen | 3-3-1 | 12 | 47 pts | 36–58 | <1% | 11% | 6% |
 TSG Hoffenheim | 3-0-4 | 9 | 46 pts | 35–58 | <1% | 10% | 7% |
 VfB Stuttgart | 2-0-5 | 6 | 46 pts | 34–58 | <1% | 9% | 10% |
 Schalke 04 | 1-3-3 | 6 | 41 pts | 28–54 | <1% | 5% | 21% |
 Eintracht Frankfurt | 2-2-3 | 8 | 41 pts | 30–52 | <1% | 3% | 19% |
 Mainz | 3-1-4 | 10 | 41 pts | 30–51 | — | 2% | 19% |
 SC Paderborn 07 | 2-2-3 | 8 | 39 pts | 27–52 | <1% | 3% | 28% |
 Hamburg SV | 3-0-4 | 9 | 37 pts | 27–48 | — | 1% | 33% |
 FC Cologne | 2-2-3 | 8 | 36 pts | 26–47 | — | 1% | 38% |
 1. FC Union Berlin | 1-3-3 | 6 | 35 pts | 24–46 | — | 1% | 44% |
 Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1-0-6 | 3 | 30 pts | 19–41 | — | <1% | 66% |
How the forecast works
We rate every team from this season’s scoring margins (with last season counted lightly early on), adjust for home advantage, and turn each remaining game into a win chance. Then we play out the rest of the schedule 10,000 times — including how sure we are about each team’s rating — and count how often each outcome happens. Three points for a win and one for a draw. Ties on points are broken at random, since goal difference isn’t simulated. Tiebreakers are simplified.
We tested this exact method on the 2025-26 season before publishing it, with settings chosen only from earlier seasons. Average miss in final points per team, compared with two simple guesses:
| Projected after | SlipHound | Keep current pace | Average the rest of the way |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of the season | 11.2 | 14.1 | 13.0 |
| 25% of the season | 6.2 | 10.0 | 10.1 |
| 50% of the season | 4.1 | 4.5 | 7.6 |
| 75% of the season | 2.3 | 2.3 | 3.6 |
Lower is better. Green marks where SlipHound was most accurate. Forecasts are estimates, not guarantees.
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