NFL season forecast 2026

American Football Conference

Team	Record	Projected W-L	Likely range	Win division	Make playoffs	#1 seed	Win Super Bowl
Jacksonville Jaguars	4-2	11.8-5.2	10–14	92%	94%	22%	12%
Buffalo Bills	5-1	11.6-5.4	9–14	66%	88%	20%	7%
Kansas City Chiefs	5-1	11.3-5.7	9–14	57%	85%	17%	7%
Cincinnati Bengals	4-2	11.2-5.8	9–13	49%	83%	15%	7%
Denver Broncos	5-2	10.8-6.2	9–13	40%	78%	9%	4%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5-2	10.7-6.3	8–13	32%	76%	8%	4%
New England Patriots	4-3	10.4-6.6	8–12	33%	72%	5%	7%
Cleveland Browns	5-2	9.4-7.6	7–12	13%	49%	2%	1%
Baltimore Ravens	4-3	8.7-8.3	6–11	7%	33%	1%	1%
Houston Texans	2-5	7.6-9.4	5–10	6%	17%	<1%	1%
Las Vegas Raiders	3-4	7.5-9.5	5–10	3%	14%	<1%	<1%
Indianapolis Colts	2-5	6.5-10.5	4–9	2%	6%	—	<1%
New York Jets	2-5	6.0-11.0	4–8	1%	3%	<1%	<1%
Miami Dolphins	1-5	4.4-12.6	2–7	<1%	1%	—	—
Tennessee Titans	1-6	3.8-13.2	2–6	<1%	<1%	—	<1%
Los Angeles Chargers	0-6	3.6-13.4	1–6	<1%	<1%	<1%	—

National Football Conference

Team	Record	Projected W-L	Likely range	Win division	Make playoffs	#1 seed	Win Super Bowl
San Francisco 49ers	6-1	12.6-4.4	11–15	77%	97%	39%	12%
Minnesota Vikings	6-0	12.6-4.4	10–15	65%	95%	40%	11%
Chicago Bears	5-2	10.8-6.2	8–13	19%	78%	8%	7%
Seattle Seahawks	4-3	10.6-6.4	8–13	19%	76%	6%	8%
Detroit Lions	4-2	9.6-7.4	7–12	10%	55%	4%	3%
Green Bay Packers	5-3	9.5-7.5	7–12	6%	53%	1%	2%
New York Giants	4-2-1	8.9-8.1	7–12	56%	60%	1%	1%
Los Angeles Rams	3-4	8.4-8.6	6–11	3%	29%	<1%	2%
Atlanta Falcons	3-4	8.2-8.8	6–10	45%	48%	<1%	2%
Dallas Cowboys	3-4	8.0-9.0	6–10	33%	37%	<1%	1%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2-5	7.3-9.7	5–10	26%	28%	<1%	1%
Carolina Panthers	3-4	7.1-9.9	5–9	20%	22%	<1%	<1%
New Orleans Saints	2-5	6.1-10.9	4–8	10%	10%	<1%	<1%
Philadelphia Eagles	2-5	5.9-11.1	4–8	7%	8%	—	<1%
Washington Commanders	1-4-1	5.5-11.5	4–8	4%	5%	—	<1%
Arizona Cardinals	2-5	5.5-11.5	3–8	<1%	1%	—	<1%

How the forecast works

We rate every team from this season’s scoring margins (with last season counted lightly early on), adjust for home advantage, and turn each remaining game into a win chance. Then we play out the rest of the schedule 10,000 times — including how sure we are about each team’s rating — and count how often each outcome happens. Division winners take seeds 1–4 and the best three other records are wild cards; playoff games are hosted by the higher seed and the Super Bowl is neutral. Tiebreakers are simplified.

We tested this exact method on the 2025 season before publishing it, with settings chosen only from earlier seasons. Average miss in final wins per team, compared with two simple guesses:

Lower is better. Green marks where SlipHound was most accurate. Forecasts are estimates, not guarantees.