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Get startedSerie A season forecast 2026-27
Every team’s projected final points, title, top-four and relegation odds, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Updated Oct 31, 8:30 AM ET · 24% of the season played · 290 games left.
| Team | W-D-L | Points | Projected | Likely range | Win title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Internazionale | 8-1-0 | 25 | 87 pts | 77–97 | 63% | 97% | — |
 AS Roma | 6-3-0 | 21 | 79 pts | 69–90 | 18% | 84% | — |
 Como | 6-2-1 | 20 | 75 pts | 64–86 | 9% | 70% | — |
 Lazio | 8-1-0 | 25 | 72 pts | 61–83 | 5% | 53% | — |
 Frosinone | 5-2-2 | 17 | 66 pts | 53–80 | 3% | 32% | <1% |
 AC Milan | 5-3-1 | 18 | 66 pts | 55–77 | 1% | 26% | — |
 Napoli | 4-2-3 | 14 | 66 pts | 55–76 | 1% | 25% | <1% |
 Juventus | 4-2-3 | 14 | 60 pts | 49–71 | <1% | 9% | <1% |
 Atalanta | 3-2-4 | 11 | 53 pts | 42–64 | <1% | 2% | 1% |
 Bologna | 3-2-4 | 11 | 52 pts | 41–64 | <1% | 2% | 1% |
 Torino | 4-1-4 | 13 | 47 pts | 37–58 | — | <1% | 3% |
 Cagliari | 4-1-4 | 13 | 44 pts | 34–55 | — | <1% | 6% |
 Genoa | 3-1-5 | 10 | 43 pts | 33–54 | — | <1% | 8% |
 Sassuolo | 2-2-5 | 8 | 43 pts | 32–54 | — | <1% | 9% |
 Fiorentina | 1-2-6 | 5 | 37 pts | 27–47 | — | — | 27% |
 Udinese | 1-2-6 | 5 | 36 pts | 25–46 | — | <1% | 31% |
 Lecce | 3-0-6 | 9 | 35 pts | 26–45 | — | <1% | 32% |
 Monza | 2-1-6 | 7 | 33 pts | 21–45 | — | <1% | 47% |
 Parma | 1-2-6 | 5 | 31 pts | 22–42 | — | — | 53% |
 Venezia | 1-0-8 | 3 | 24 pts | 14–35 | — | — | 83% |
How the forecast works
We rate every team from this season’s scoring margins (with last season counted lightly early on), adjust for home advantage, and turn each remaining game into a win chance. Then we play out the rest of the schedule 10,000 times — including how sure we are about each team’s rating — and count how often each outcome happens. Three points for a win and one for a draw. Ties on points are broken at random, since goal difference isn’t simulated. Tiebreakers are simplified.
We tested this exact method on the 2025-26 season before publishing it, with settings chosen only from earlier seasons. Average miss in final points per team, compared with two simple guesses:
| Projected after | SlipHound | Keep current pace | Average the rest of the way |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of the season | 8.5 | 20.2 | 12.8 |
| 25% of the season | 6.5 | 9.5 | 10.3 |
| 50% of the season | 4.4 | 5.1 | 6.9 |
| 75% of the season | 3.1 | 2.8 | 4.0 |
Lower is better. Green marks where SlipHound was most accurate. Forecasts are estimates, not guarantees.
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