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Get startedLigue 1 season forecast 2026-27
Every team’s projected final points, title, top-four and relegation odds, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Updated Oct 31, 8:30 AM ET · 25% of the season played · 231 games left.
| Team | W-D-L | Points | Projected | Likely range | Win title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Paris Saint-Germain | 6-2-1 | 20 | 74 pts | 64–83 | 73% | 97% | — |
 Lille | 5-3-1 | 18 | 59 pts | 49–69 | 6% | 53% | <1% |
 AS Monaco | 4-3-1 | 15 | 59 pts | 49–69 | 6% | 53% | <1% |
 Lyon | 4-2-2 | 14 | 59 pts | 48–69 | 6% | 51% | <1% |
 Stade Rennais | 5-1-3 | 16 | 55 pts | 45–66 | 2% | 34% | <1% |
 Lens | 4-1-4 | 13 | 55 pts | 45–65 | 3% | 34% | <1% |
 Marseille | 4-0-4 | 12 | 54 pts | 43–64 | 1% | 27% | 1% |
 Paris FC | 4-2-2 | 14 | 53 pts | 42–63 | 1% | 24% | 1% |
 Lorient | 3-3-2 | 12 | 47 pts | 37–57 | <1% | 8% | 4% |
 Nice | 4-2-3 | 14 | 45 pts | 35–55 | <1% | 4% | 6% |
 Toulouse | 2-4-2 | 10 | 44 pts | 34–55 | <1% | 5% | 7% |
 Strasbourg | 2-1-5 | 7 | 44 pts | 33–55 | <1% | 4% | 8% |
 Brest | 2-3-3 | 9 | 41 pts | 31–52 | <1% | 2% | 13% |
 AJ Auxerre | 3-1-4 | 10 | 38 pts | 28–48 | <1% | 1% | 22% |
 Le Mans | 1-4-3 | 7 | 36 pts | 24–49 | <1% | 1% | 36% |
 Angers | 2-2-4 | 8 | 34 pts | 24–44 | — | <1% | 42% |
 Le Havre AC | 0-2-7 | 2 | 28 pts | 18–37 | — | — | 75% |
 Troyes | 1-2-5 | 5 | 24 pts | 14–34 | — | <1% | 85% |
How the forecast works
We rate every team from this season’s scoring margins (with last season counted lightly early on), adjust for home advantage, and turn each remaining game into a win chance. Then we play out the rest of the schedule 10,000 times — including how sure we are about each team’s rating — and count how often each outcome happens. Three points for a win and one for a draw. Ties on points are broken at random, since goal difference isn’t simulated. Tiebreakers are simplified.
We tested this exact method on the 2025-26 season before publishing it, with settings chosen only from earlier seasons. Average miss in final points per team, compared with two simple guesses:
| Projected after | SlipHound | Keep current pace | Average the rest of the way |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of the season | 7.5 | 15.5 | 11.1 |
| 25% of the season | 6.0 | 7.9 | 9.2 |
| 50% of the season | 4.3 | 4.9 | 7.1 |
| 75% of the season | 3.2 | 3.6 | 4.5 |
Lower is better. Green marks where SlipHound was most accurate. Forecasts are estimates, not guarantees.
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