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Get startedCollege Football season forecast 2026
Where every team is headed: the current record, the pace it’s on over a 12-game season, a projection from scoring margin (which predicts future results better than record alone), and how many games our model expects each team to win in the next seven days.
American Conference
| Team | Record | Margin / game | Win pace | Margin projection | Next 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UTSA Roadrunners | 7-1 | +7.5 | 10.5 W | 9.6 W | 0.7 of 1 |
 South Florida Bulls | 6-2 | +12.5 | 9.0 W | 9.3 W | 0.5 of 1 |
 Memphis Tigers | 7-2 | +14.0 | 9.3 W | 9.3 W | — |
 North Texas Mean Green | 6-2 | +11.9 | 9.0 W | 8.7 W | — |
 Army Black Knights | 5-3 | +8.1 | 7.5 W | 7.6 W | — |
 Florida Atlantic Owls | 5-3 | +2.0 | 7.5 W | 7.1 W | 0.3 of 1 |
 Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 4-4 | +5.4 | 6.0 W | 6.5 W | 0.3 of 1 |
 East Carolina Pirates | 4-4 | −0.1 | 6.0 W | 6.0 W | 0.5 of 1 |
 Tulane Green Wave | 4-4 | −2.9 | 6.0 W | 5.7 W | 0.7 of 1 |
 UAB Blazers | 4-4 | −3.6 | 6.0 W | 5.6 W | 0.8 of 1 |
 Navy Midshipmen | 2-6 | −2.3 | 3.0 W | 3.8 W | 0.8 of 1 |
 Temple Owls | 2-6 | −3.0 | 3.0 W | 3.7 W | 0.2 of 1 |
 Rice Owls | 1-7 | −10.8 | 1.5 W | 2.1 W | — |
 Charlotte 49ers | 1-7 | −19.6 | 1.5 W | 1.7 W | 0.2 of 1 |
Atlantic Coast Conference
| Team | Record | Margin / game | Win pace | Margin projection | Next 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Miami Hurricanes | 8-0 | +29.9 | 12.0 W | 11.6 W | — |
 Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 7-1 | +21.3 | 10.5 W | 10.5 W | 1.0 of 1 |
 Duke Blue Devils | 6-2 | +17.8 | 9.0 W | 9.5 W | 0.6 of 1 |
 Virginia Tech Hokies | 6-2 | +14.5 | 9.0 W | 9.1 W | 0.2 of 1 |
 SMU Mustangs | 6-2 | +13.0 | 9.0 W | 9.0 W | 0.8 of 1 |
 Pittsburgh Panthers | 6-3 | +12.1 | 8.0 W | 8.3 W | — |
 Louisville Cardinals | 5-3 | +13.4 | 7.5 W | 7.9 W | — |
 Clemson Tigers | 5-3 | +1.6 | 7.5 W | 7.2 W | 0.5 of 1 |
 NC State Wolfpack | 4-4 | +6.3 | 6.0 W | 6.5 W | 0.4 of 1 |
 Syracuse Orange | 4-4 | +5.0 | 6.0 W | 6.4 W | 0.5 of 1 |
 North Carolina Tar Heels | 4-4 | +2.8 | 6.0 W | 6.3 W | 0.5 of 1 |
 Virginia Cavaliers | 4-5 | +2.8 | 5.3 W | 5.7 W | — |
 Boston College Eagles | 4-4 | −4.9 | 6.0 W | 5.5 W | 0.4 of 1 |
 Florida State Seminoles | 3-5 | +1.8 | 4.5 W | 5.1 W | 0.6 of 1 |
 Stanford Cardinal | 4-5 | −17.0 | 5.3 W | 4.6 W | — |
 California Golden Bears | 3-6 | −9.7 | 4.0 W | 3.9 W | — |
 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 2-6 | −6.0 | 3.0 W | 3.5 W | — |
Big 12 Conference
| Team | Record | Margin / game | Win pace | Margin projection | Next 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Utah Utes | 8-0 | +23.0 | 12.0 W | 11.6 W | 0.7 of 1 |
 BYU Cougars | 7-1 | +13.6 | 10.5 W | 10.1 W | 0.3 of 1 |
 Texas Tech Red Raiders | 7-1 | +14.5 | 10.5 W | 10.1 W | — |
 Arizona Wildcats | 6-2 | +16.0 | 9.0 W | 9.2 W | 0.8 of 1 |
 Houston Cougars | 6-2 | +15.0 | 9.0 W | 9.1 W | 0.8 of 1 |
 Baylor Bears | 5-3 | +15.4 | 7.5 W | 8.4 W | 0.7 of 1 |
 Oklahoma State Cowboys | 5-3 | +14.0 | 7.5 W | 7.9 W | 0.4 of 1 |
 Cincinnati Bearcats | 5-3 | +4.9 | 7.5 W | 7.4 W | 0.2 of 1 |
 West Virginia Mountaineers | 5-3 | +3.6 | 7.5 W | 7.3 W | — |
 TCU Horned Frogs | 4-4 | +9.1 | 6.0 W | 7.1 W | 0.2 of 1 |
 Kansas State Wildcats | 4-4 | +9.9 | 6.0 W | 6.8 W | 0.6 of 1 |
 UCF Knights | 4-4 | +4.5 | 6.0 W | 6.4 W | — |
 Iowa State Cyclones | 4-4 | +1.8 | 6.0 W | 6.1 W | 0.3 of 1 |
 Arizona State Sun Devils | 4-4 | 0.0 | 6.0 W | 6.0 W | — |
 Kansas Jayhawks | 3-5 | +5.4 | 4.5 W | 5.5 W | — |
 Colorado Buffaloes | 3-5 | −8.4 | 4.5 W | 4.2 W | — |
Big Ten Conference
| Team | Record | Margin / game | Win pace | Margin projection | Next 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UCLA Bruins | 8-0 | +20.1 | 12.0 W | 11.6 W | 0.6 of 1 |
 Indiana Hoosiers | 8-1 | +20.0 | 10.7 W | 10.7 W | — |
 Ohio State Buckeyes | 6-2 | +21.1 | 9.0 W | 9.5 W | 0.8 of 1 |
 Iowa Hawkeyes | 6-2 | +15.8 | 9.0 W | 9.5 W | — |
 Northwestern Wildcats | 6-2 | +14.9 | 9.0 W | 9.2 W | — |
 USC Trojans | 7-2 | +8.2 | 9.3 W | 9.0 W | — |
 Nebraska Cornhuskers | 5-3 | +16.8 | 7.5 W | 8.4 W | 0.6 of 1 |
 Oregon Ducks | 5-3 | +11.9 | 7.5 W | 8.0 W | 0.2 of 1 |
 Wisconsin Badgers | 5-3 | +6.5 | 7.5 W | 7.7 W | — |
 Michigan Wolverines | 5-3 | +4.9 | 7.5 W | 7.6 W | — |
 Washington Huskies | 5-3 | +5.4 | 7.5 W | 7.5 W | 0.5 of 1 |
 Minnesota Golden Gophers | 5-3 | +4.8 | 7.5 W | 7.5 W | 0.4 of 1 |
 Illinois Fighting Illini | 5-3 | +4.8 | 7.5 W | 7.4 W | 0.4 of 1 |
 Penn State Nittany Lions | 4-4 | +10.4 | 6.0 W | 7.0 W | 0.5 of 1 |
 Purdue Boilermakers | 3-5 | −2.6 | 4.5 W | 4.8 W | 0.7 of 1 |
 Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 2-6 | −4.9 | 3.0 W | 3.6 W | — |
 Maryland Terrapins | 2-6 | −4.8 | 3.0 W | 3.6 W | 0.3 of 1 |
 Michigan State Spartans | 2-6 | −5.9 | 3.0 W | 3.4 W | — |
Conference USA
| Team | Record | Margin / game | Win pace | Margin projection | Next 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liberty Flames | 7-1 | +20.3 | 10.5 W | 10.6 W | — |
 Jacksonville State Gamecocks | 6-2 | +7.0 | 9.0 W | 8.7 W | — |
 Delaware Blue Hens | 4-4 | +1.6 | 6.0 W | 6.1 W | 0.5 of 1 |
 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 4-4 | −5.8 | 6.0 W | 5.5 W | — |
 Florida International Panthers | 3-5 | −1.5 | 4.5 W | 4.8 W | — |
 New Mexico State Aggies | 3-5 | −3.8 | 4.5 W | 4.6 W | — |
 Missouri State Bears | 3-5 | −6.5 | 4.5 W | 4.5 W | — |
 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 3-5 | −9.9 | 4.5 W | 4.2 W | — |
 Kennesaw State Owls | 2-6 | −2.4 | 3.0 W | 3.8 W | 0.5 of 1 |
 Sam Houston Bearkats | 1-7 | −7.1 | 1.5 W | 2.2 W | — |
FBS Independents
| Team | Record | Margin / game | Win pace | Margin projection | Next 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 7-1 | +27.0 | 10.5 W | 10.7 W | — |
 UConn Huskies | 4-4 | +9.1 | 6.0 W | 6.7 W | 0.5 of 1 |
Mid-American Conference
| Team | Record | Margin / game | Win pace | Margin projection | Next 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Toledo Rockets | 6-2 | +12.0 | 9.0 W | 8.9 W | 0.9 of 1 |
 Ohio Bobcats | 6-2 | +7.8 | 9.0 W | 8.7 W | 0.8 of 1 |
 Western Michigan Broncos | 6-3 | +7.0 | 8.0 W | 8.0 W | — |
 Miami (OH) RedHawks | 5-3 | +1.3 | 7.5 W | 7.1 W | 0.7 of 1 |
 Buffalo Bulls | 5-3 | −2.8 | 7.5 W | 6.7 W | 0.3 of 1 |
 Massachusetts Minutemen | 4-4 | +5.4 | 6.0 W | 6.5 W | 0.7 of 1 |
 Eastern Michigan Eagles | 4-5 | −4.3 | 5.3 W | 5.2 W | 0.4 of 1 |
 Central Michigan Chippewas | 3-5 | −8.0 | 4.5 W | 4.2 W | 0.6 of 1 |
 Ball State Cardinals | 3-5 | −13.3 | 4.5 W | 4.0 W | 0.3 of 1 |
 Kent State Golden Flashes | 3-6 | −16.2 | 4.0 W | 3.4 W | — |
 Bowling Green Falcons | 2-7 | −11.2 | 2.7 W | 2.7 W | — |
 Sacramento State Hornets | 2-7 | −13.3 | 2.7 W | 2.6 W | 0.1 of 1 |
 Akron Zips | 1-7 | −13.8 | 1.5 W | 1.9 W | 0.2 of 1 |
Mountain West Conference
| Team | Record | Margin / game | Win pace | Margin projection | Next 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New Mexico Lobos | 7-1 | +23.1 | 10.5 W | 10.7 W | 0.8 of 1 |
 North Dakota State Bison | 7-2 | +16.2 | 9.3 W | 9.7 W | — |
 Air Force Falcons | 6-2 | +7.8 | 9.0 W | 8.7 W | — |
 UNLV Rebels | 5-3 | +1.3 | 7.5 W | 7.1 W | — |
 Wyoming Cowboys | 5-3 | −0.5 | 7.5 W | 6.9 W | — |
 San José State Spartans | 4-5 | −2.4 | 5.3 W | 5.3 W | — |
 Nevada Wolf Pack | 3-5 | +0.4 | 4.5 W | 5.0 W | 0.2 of 1 |
 Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 2-6 | −3.8 | 3.0 W | 3.6 W | — |
 UTEP Miners | 1-7 | −22.4 | 1.5 W | 1.4 W | — |
 Northern Illinois Huskies | 0-8 | −21.4 | 0.0 W | 0.5 W | — |
Pac-12 Conference
| Team | Record | Margin / game | Win pace | Margin projection | Next 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Boise State Broncos | 7-1 | +12.3 | 10.5 W | 9.9 W | — |
 Oregon State Beavers | 5-3 | +15.1 | 7.5 W | 8.0 W | — |
 Fresno State Bulldogs | 5-3 | +7.9 | 7.5 W | 7.7 W | — |
 Texas State Bobcats | 4-4 | +6.1 | 6.0 W | 6.4 W | — |
 San Diego State Aztecs | 4-5 | −7.9 | 5.3 W | 5.1 W | — |
 Colorado State Rams | 3-5 | −6.9 | 4.5 W | 4.6 W | — |
 Utah State Aggies | 3-5 | −5.0 | 4.5 W | 4.4 W | — |
 Washington State Cougars | 1-8 | −8.4 | 1.3 W | 1.9 W | — |
Southeastern Conference
| Team | Record | Margin / game | Win pace | Margin projection | Next 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Georgia Bulldogs | 7-1 | +26.1 | 10.5 W | 10.7 W | — |
 Kentucky Wildcats | 7-1 | +8.1 | 10.5 W | 9.6 W | — |
 LSU Tigers | 6-2 | +24.1 | 9.0 W | 9.6 W | 0.4 of 1 |
 Tennessee Volunteers | 6-2 | +16.0 | 9.0 W | 9.3 W | — |
 Alabama Crimson Tide | 6-2 | +17.0 | 9.0 W | 9.2 W | 0.6 of 1 |
 Texas Longhorns | 6-2 | +13.6 | 9.0 W | 9.2 W | 0.5 of 1 |
 Missouri Tigers | 6-2 | +13.1 | 9.0 W | 9.1 W | 0.5 of 1 |
 Ole Miss Rebels | 6-2 | +13.1 | 9.0 W | 9.0 W | — |
 South Carolina Gamecocks | 5-3 | +11.6 | 7.5 W | 7.8 W | 0.5 of 1 |
 Florida Gators | 5-3 | +7.5 | 7.5 W | 7.5 W | — |
 Texas A&M Aggies | 4-4 | +9.4 | 6.0 W | 6.9 W | 0.5 of 1 |
 Oklahoma Sooners | 4-4 | +1.3 | 6.0 W | 6.1 W | — |
 Mississippi State Bulldogs | 4-4 | −1.5 | 6.0 W | 5.9 W | — |
 Auburn Tigers | 4-4 | −2.6 | 6.0 W | 5.8 W | 0.8 of 1 |
 Vanderbilt Commodores | 3-5 | −7.5 | 4.5 W | 4.3 W | — |
 Arkansas Razorbacks | 3-5 | −8.0 | 4.5 W | 4.2 W | 0.2 of 1 |
Sun Belt Conference · Sun Belt - East
| Team | Record | Margin / game | Win pace | Margin projection | Next 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 James Madison Dukes | 7-2 | +20.2 | 9.3 W | 9.5 W | 0.9 of 1 |
 App State Mountaineers | 5-3 | +4.1 | 7.5 W | 7.4 W | 0.6 of 1 |
 Georgia State Panthers | 4-4 | +7.3 | 6.0 W | 6.6 W | 0.4 of 1 |
 Marshall Thundering Herd | 5-3 | −6.3 | 7.5 W | 6.5 W | 0.2 of 1 |
 Georgia Southern Eagles | 4-4 | +3.3 | 6.0 W | 6.3 W | 0.8 of 1 |
 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | 3-5 | +1.6 | 4.5 W | 5.1 W | 0.5 of 1 |
 Old Dominion Monarchs | 2-7 | −11.4 | 2.7 W | 2.7 W | 0.5 of 1 |
Sun Belt Conference · Sun Belt - West
| Team | Record | Margin / game | Win pace | Margin projection | Next 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 6-2 | +11.8 | 9.0 W | 9.0 W | — |
 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 5-3 | +8.9 | 7.5 W | 7.8 W | — |
 Arkansas State Red Wolves | 4-4 | +1.5 | 6.0 W | 6.1 W | 0.9 of 1 |
 South Alabama Jaguars | 4-4 | +0.5 | 6.0 W | 6.0 W | — |
 Troy Trojans | 4-4 | −1.4 | 6.0 W | 5.9 W | — |
 Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 3-5 | −4.1 | 4.5 W | 4.7 W | 0.1 of 1 |
 UL Monroe Warhawks | 1-7 | −16.8 | 1.5 W | 1.8 W | 0.1 of 1 |
How to read this
Win pace assumes a team keeps winning at its current rate. Margin projection uses points scored and allowed instead (the “Pythagorean” method), which is steadier early in a season. Next 7 days adds up our model’s win chance for each of the team’s upcoming games — for example, 1.4 of 2 means the model expects about 1.4 wins from its next two games.
Projections are estimates, not guarantees. Early in a season, with only a few games played, they swing a lot. Records and scoring from ESPN.
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