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Get startedLa Liga season forecast 2026-27
Every team’s projected final points, title, top-four and relegation odds, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Updated Oct 31, 8:30 AM ET · 26% of the season played · 279 games left.
| Team | W-D-L | Points | Projected | Likely range | Win title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 9-0-1 | 27 | 97 pts | 89–105 | 81% | >99% | — |
 Real Madrid | 8-0-2 | 24 | 88 pts | 79–97 | 16% | >99% | — |
 Atlético Madrid | 8-1-1 | 25 | 79 pts | 68–89 | 2% | 94% | — |
 Real Betis | 6-2-2 | 20 | 67 pts | 56–78 | <1% | 57% | <1% |
 Real Sociedad | 6-1-3 | 19 | 59 pts | 48–70 | — | 18% | <1% |
 Villarreal | 3-3-5 | 12 | 56 pts | 45–66 | — | 9% | 1% |
 Sevilla | 5-2-3 | 17 | 55 pts | 44–66 | — | 8% | 1% |
 Elche | 2-4-4 | 10 | 50 pts | 39–61 | — | 3% | 4% |
 Athletic Club | 3-3-3 | 12 | 50 pts | 39–61 | — | 3% | 4% |
 Celta Vigo | 2-6-2 | 12 | 48 pts | 37–59 | — | 2% | 6% |
 Deportivo | 2-5-3 | 11 | 48 pts | 35–61 | — | 4% | 9% |
 Alavés | 3-3-4 | 12 | 46 pts | 35–57 | — | 1% | 9% |
 Espanyol | 3-2-6 | 11 | 45 pts | 35–55 | — | 1% | 10% |
 Levante | 2-4-4 | 10 | 45 pts | 34–55 | — | 1% | 12% |
 Rayo Vallecano | 2-3-4 | 9 | 42 pts | 31–53 | — | <1% | 19% |
 Osasuna | 3-2-5 | 11 | 39 pts | 29–50 | — | <1% | 29% |
 Getafe | 2-3-5 | 9 | 38 pts | 28–48 | — | <1% | 35% |
 Valencia | 1-3-6 | 6 | 38 pts | 28–48 | — | <1% | 35% |
 Racing Santander | 3-2-5 | 11 | 37 pts | 25–49 | — | <1% | 43% |
 Málaga | 0-5-5 | 5 | 27 pts | 16–38 | — | — | 82% |
How the forecast works
We rate every team from this season’s scoring margins (with last season counted lightly early on), adjust for home advantage, and turn each remaining game into a win chance. Then we play out the rest of the schedule 10,000 times — including how sure we are about each team’s rating — and count how often each outcome happens. Three points for a win and one for a draw. Ties on points are broken at random, since goal difference isn’t simulated. Tiebreakers are simplified.
We tested this exact method on the 2025-26 season before publishing it, with settings chosen only from earlier seasons. Average miss in final points per team, compared with two simple guesses:
| Projected after | SlipHound | Keep current pace | Average the rest of the way |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of the season | 7.0 | 19.3 | 11.2 |
| 25% of the season | 5.9 | 8.1 | 9.1 |
| 50% of the season | 4.2 | 6.1 | 5.7 |
| 75% of the season | 2.9 | 3.6 | 3.3 |
Lower is better. Green marks where SlipHound was most accurate. Forecasts are estimates, not guarantees.
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