How our model picks bets.
Every pick on the SlipHound models record passed the same seven checks before the game. Here they are, so you can hold any bet to the same standard.
Seven checks. All of them, every time.
A bet that fails any one of these isn’t a model pick.
- 1
Our model gives the side at least 55%
The model’s own chance, not the sportsbook’s. Below 55%, picks lost too often on our forward record, so they don’t count.
- 2
The price leaves at least 2% value
Value = our chance × decimal odds − 1. It has to be 2% or more: the bet should return at least $2 per $100 over many bets like it.
- 3
Underdogs need 5%
Any plus-money price needs 5%+ value. Our underdog numbers ran overconfident, so they need a bigger cushion.
- 4
Too good to be true gets skipped
Value above 35% almost always means stale odds, late news or a data error, not a gift. We pass.
- 5
Odds between −400 and +400
Heavier favorites risk too much for too little. Longer shots swing too much to judge the model by.
- 6
Only markets the model has proven
A market makes picks only after the model beat a no-opinion baseline on games it had never seen. Everything else is a “lean”, tracked separately.
- 7
A fresh price, one bet per game
The odds must be under 15 minutes old and the game not started. If a game has several bets that pass, only the one with the most value counts.
Markets that make picks.
These passed the test on games the model had never seen. Soccer and tennis picks come from their own sport models.
Player props follow the same idea: the player has cleared the line in at least 60% of 10+ recent games, and the price still leaves 2%+ value.
Same rules, four bets.
Value = chance × decimal odds − 1. Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds.
Passes all seven. This is a model pick.
The price needs 60% to break even; our 58% falls short.
Under 55%, and the 1% value is below the 5% underdog bar.
Real value, but −450 is outside the −400 limit.
Use it on any bet.
- 1
Get our chance
Every game page shows our model’s exact win chance, free.
- 2
Get your sportsbook’s price
The odds you can actually bet, right now. Prices move, so check close to betting.
- 3
Run the numbers
Put both into the EV calculator, then go down the checklist. Pass all seven or pass on the bet.
Members don’t have to do this by hand: the dashboard checks every game against every price and only shows what passes. Losing streaks still happen. The checklist is about the long run, and how the model has done is on the public record.